xG Calculator: Interactive Expected Goals Estimator

Click anywhere on the attacking half to place a shot. Adjust body part and defender pressure. See how chance quality changes with location and context.

Click to place a shot

Body part

Shot type

Defenders between shot and goal 0

Pressure on shooter Low

Estimated xG

0.00

Place a shot on the pitch above.

Educational tool. This calculator uses a simplified xG approximation based on shot distance, angle, body part, and defender-pressure modifiers. Professional xG models ingest tracking data (ball trajectory, defender positioning, goalkeeper position, assist type, and more). Use this to build intuition, not to evaluate professional matches.

How xG works

Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot by comparing it to historical conversion rates of similar chances. A chance from six yards out in a central position has a high xG (because similar chances are scored often); a chance from 35 yards out from a tight angle has a low xG.

The simplified formula this calculator uses:

xG inputs

Distance from goal: closer shots have higher xG. The relationship is roughly exponential decay: 6-yard shots are dramatically more valuable than 24-yard shots.
Angle to goal: more central positions have higher xG because the target area is wider. Tight angles from the byline suppress xG substantially.
Body part: headers convert at lower rates than footed shots on average, so headers reduce xG versus footed shots from the same position.
Shot type: penalties have a fixed high baseline (about 0.76 xG, the historical penalty conversion rate). Set-piece set shots (direct free kicks from range) have lower xG than open-play chances at similar positions.
Defender pressure: more defenders between the shot and goal, plus closer pressure on the shooter, both reduce xG.

What's missing from this calculator

Professional xG models incorporate additional variables this simplified tool does not:

Factors not modeled here

Ball trajectory: ground passes vs crosses vs through balls preceding the shot.
Goalkeeper position: off the line vs on the line vs committed to one side.
Assist type: cut-backs, pull-backs, long through balls, and rebound shots all have different conversion rates.
Build-up speed: fast transitions vs sustained possession produce different chance-quality distributions.
Shot technique: volleys, half-volleys, placed shots, power shots have different conversion curves.
Score and game-state context: trailing teams take riskier shots that can distort conversion rates.

Using xG to read matches

xG is most powerful when aggregated across matches and seasons. A single shot can have xG of 0.35 and still be scored or missed, because each chance is a probabilistic event. Across many chances, actual goals converge toward total xG.

Three ways to use xG when reading matches:

Match-reading patterns

Final xG vs final score. Teams that lose with higher xG than their opponent often were unlucky in a single-match sample; the underlying performance was better than the scoreline suggests.
Sustained xG outperformance. Teams whose goal-scoring consistently exceeds xG across multiple seasons may have above-baseline finishing (clinical finishers, set-piece routines).
xGA (expected goals against). The defensive mirror of xG. Teams that suppress xGA below opposition averages have structural defensive solidity that reputation-based rankings miss.

For deeper explanations of each metric, read the full guides:

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